CFL Simulation: Stamps on the rise

TORONTO — Last week, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers became the CFL’s first team to clinch a playoff spot. As they pad their record, which now stands at 9-1, they now have a new goal approaching. Win No. 10 would seal it for them, as would a combination of both the Bombers and Roughriders losing this weekend (full details on playoff scenarios are here).

The Bombers are shaping up to be a historically great team and their dominance is reflected in the updated CFL Simulation. There’s also something interesting happening a little further down in the calculations made.

The Calgary Stampeders are on a roll, having won a pair of games against Saskatchewan, then going into BC Place and handling business last week against the Lions. The team that just three weeks ago had a 1.77 per cent chance of winning the Grey Cup now has the third-highest Grey Cup victory probability, at 10.18 per cent, just a fraction of a percentage point behind Toronto. The simulation is a snapshot of a team’s odds in one moment of the season. Right now for the Stampeders, who close out their schedule with games against Saskatchewan, Ottawa, BC and Winnipeg, things are looking very good.


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Have a look at where your team sits in this moment this week and what its post-season odds look like.

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

Team (Projected 2021 Record) Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-3) C*
Toronto Argonauts (9-5) 98.80%
Montreal Alouettes (8-6) 96.91%
Calgary Stampeders (7-7) 90.45%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-7) 83.08%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-7) 76.23%
BC Lions (6-8) 46.87%
Edmonton Elks (4-10) 6.69%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (4-10) 0.97%

*C = Clinched a particular outcome

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers >99.99%
Toronto Argonauts 90.34%
Montreal Alouettes 82.07%
Calgary Stampeders 53.60%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 35.88%
BC Lions 34.56%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 27.45%
Edmonton Elks 0.47%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.15%

ODDS TO WIN EAST

Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts 48.87%
Montreal Alouettes 41.66%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 9.47%
Ottawa REDBLACKS <0.01%

ODDS TO WIN WEST

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 99.89%
Calgary Stampeders 0.08%
BC Lions 0.02%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.01%
Edmonton Elks E*

* E = a team being eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 77.46%
Toronto Argonauts 46.73%
Montreal Alouettes 37.45%
Calgary Stampeders 14.59%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 12.86%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 7.74%
BC Lions 2.71%
Edmonton Elks 0.39%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.07%

ODDS TO WIN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 59.54%
Toronto Argonauts 10.77%
Calgary Stampeders 10.18%
Montreal Alouettes 10.11%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 4.85%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 3.11%
BC Lions 1.25%
Edmonton Elks 0.18%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.01%

MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Winnipeg-Toronto 36.01%
Winnipeg-Montreal 29.16%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 9.98%
Calgary-Toronto 6.40%
Calgary-Montreal 5.11%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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