CFL Simulation: Bombers rolling, Als rising up

TORONTO — The 10-1 record, the eight-game win streak and the most recent body of work — a 45-0 win over BC — all speak for themselves when it comes to defining the dominance of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers this season.

We’ll offer you one more nugget of info, like sprinkles on a cake of football excellence. Our simulation model now pegs the Bombers at a 70.57 per cent chance of claiming the Grey Cup. It’s one of the highest probabilities that the simulation has ever produced.

While these numbers are simply a weekly reflection of where we stand at this point in the season — which the once seemingly dead-in-the-water Calgary Stampeders may proudly remind you of — the numbers do show step-by-step just how consistently good the Bombers have been. Their locking up of first-place in the West Division may be the only thing that slows this team down (by their choice) in their next three games.

But enough about a generationally great team.

The simulation looks kindly this week on the Montreal Alouettes, who convincingly took the top spot in the East last week with a win over the Toronto Argonauts. It won’t take you long to find the Als in these listings this week.


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Have a look below to see where your team sits this week. A reminder: As teams clinch spots and are eliminated from playoff contention, you’ll see more Cs and Es popping up here.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

Team (Projected 2021 Record) Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (12-2) C
Montreal Alouettes (8-6) 99.49%
Toronto Argonauts (8-6) 98.55%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-6) 97.28%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-7) 91.59%
Calgary Stampeders (7-7) 77.90%
BC Lions (6-8) 29.41%
Edmonton Elks (4-10) 5.78%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (3-11) E

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers C
Montreal Alouettes 83.79%
Toronto Argonauts 79.88%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 77.77%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 36.33%
Calgary Stampeders 18.66%
BC Lions 3.57%
Edmonton Elks E
Ottawa REDBLACKS E

ODDS TO WIN EAST

Team Projection
Montreal Alouettes 51.04%
Toronto Argonauts 31.17%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 17.79%
Ottawa REDBLACKS E

ODDS TO WIN WEST

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers C
Calgary Stampeders E
BC Lions E
Saskatchewan Roughriders E
Edmonton Elks E

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 85.32%
Montreal Alouettes 48.71%
Toronto Argonauts 30.17%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 20.23%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 8.68%
Calgary Stampeders 6.14%
BC Lions 0.52%
Edmonton Elks 0.24%
Ottawa REDBLACKS E

ODDS TO WIN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 70.57%
Montreal Alouettes 11.58%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 5.56%
Calgary Stampeders 4.05%
Toronto Argonauts 3.98%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 3.98%
BC Lions 0.18%
Edmonton Elks 0.10%
Ottawa REDBLACKS E

MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Winnipeg-Montreal 41.57%
Winnipeg-Toronto 25.73%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 17.26%
Saskatchewan-Montreal 4.22%
Saskatchewan-Toronto 2.60%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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